Climate risks are increasingly a concern for homeowners and real estate investors. Thankfully, in the past five years more sources have cropped up for gauging climate-related concerns for a region or a specific address. In the not-too-distant future, AI tools such as the recently introduced “Aardvark” developed at the University of Cambridge are likely to make weather forecasting and climate risk assessments faster and more accurate.
In the meantime, at the websites below, you can type in an address, a county, or a city/town to get an idea of what the relative exposure is for a variety of natural disasters:
U.S. Government Sources
The National Risk Index by FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) was fully released on August 2021. This dataset and tool identify the risk of natural hazard in general and by type of hazard across the U.S. You can zoom in by typing a county (more specific results), city or town. Clicking the down arrow next to the Risk Index takes you to specific phenomenon, from avalanche to winter weather, and by clicking on these you can see the areas most affected.
A total of 18 hazards are assessed: Avalanche, Coastal Flooding, Cold Wave, Drought, Earthquake, Hail, Heat Wave, Hurricane, Ice Storm, Landslide, Lightning, Riverine Flooding, Strong Wind, Tornado, Tsunami, Volcanic Activity, Wildfire, and Winter Weather. The National Risk Index was created by FEMA in collaboration with academia, other federal agencies and local and state governments, and private industry. In addition, FEMA provides digital flood maps for virtually all of the U.S.
U.S. Drought Monitor. You can click on your state to get weekly updates on the level of drought in each area. The maps are produced by National Integrated Drought Information System, which is a multi-agency effort (NOAA, USDA and the National Drought Mitigation Center) to compile each Thursday a new map based on their assessments of the best available data and input from local observers. The map uses five categories: Abnormally Dry (D0), showing areas that may be going into or are coming out of drought, and four levels of drought (D1–D4).
US Dept of Agriculture (USDA) Fire Maps. These are produced for towns and cities across the U.S. They do not cover specific addresses. Type the name of your town or city to view interactive charts and maps about wildfire risk and get information on how to reduce risk.
Private Providers
First Street Foundation — This Brooklyn, NY based nonprofit launched its first dataset (Flood Factor) in June 2020 and has continued to roll out new offerings since then. First Street now provides the climate related data that appear on Zillow and Redfin listings. Beyond that, you will need a subscription to First Street to get detailed information on properties or regions. And for a fee, they also provide climate risk assessments for real estate portfolios1.
According to their methodology webpage: “First Street has developed five peril factors that contribute to a property’s overall climate risk: flood, fire, wind, air, and heat. Evaluating these climate risks allows companies to develop more robust and comprehensive strategies that mitigate not only the direct impact of such events but also the indirect consequences that might disrupt operations and financial performance.”
Portfolio Protect — This climate risk data service is provided by the nonprofit Enterprise Community Partners, a national developer of affordable housing that was launched in 1982 by the real estate developer Jim Rouse and his wife Patty. While this tool was created to help owners, operators and developers of affordable housing understand climate risks for their properties, it can be used by anyone to assess risk for any property.
You can type any U.S. address into the homepage and get results. The raw data for Portfolio Protect comes from the FEMA National Index (see above) but also includes other info and incorporates a Social Vulnerable Index. Properties/areas are ranked on scale of 1 to 30, with 30 being highest risk.
Useful Guide in the New York Times
There is a recent and must-read guide by the financial columnist Ron Lieber and reporter Tara Barnard Siegel titled “How to Shop for a Home that Won’t Be Upended by Climate Change.” Lieber and Siegel teamed up to present clear, well-organized information on all the things homebuyers should consider that pertain to the environment — from water supply to the potential for wildfires, floods and high insurance rates. All this info is also very useful for those looking to sell or concerned about the areas they currently own real estate.
1This should not be considered a recommendation or referral. LNW is not affiliated with First Street, and we do not derive any benefit or compensation from mentioning their services.
